Unlocked Sports - NFL Pick of the Week - Minnesota vs. Tennessee

Posted 9/26/08

NFL Pick of the Week brought to you from Eric of Unlocked Sports, your source for sports predictions .

Pick: Tennessee -3

There are few games this week that are worth betting. However, betting on Tennessee to beat Minnesota by more than 3 points is about as good as it gets in terms of finding a secure pick for week 4.

The Titans have been one of the most surprising teams this year. They are currently 3-0 overall and against the spread. The key to their success has been their outstanding defensive performance. They have allowed an average of only 240.3 yards per game and have limited their opposition to an average of just 9.7 points per contest. They rank third and second in the league in both defensive categories.

Minnesota has struggled immensely on offense thus far this season. They benched QB Tarvaris Jackson last week in an effort to spark their offense. Gus Frerotte got the start and threw for 204 yards and a touchdown and the Vikings defeated Carolina 20-10. Frerotte is a good quarterback but not a great one. Minnesota lacks substantial depth at the quarterback and receiver positions. Their main offensive threat is their running game led by pro bowl running back Adrian Peterson who is averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Although Peterson has had some success running the ball, he only has one touchdown this season. Gus Frerotte did not feel much pressure against Carolina. You can expect that the Titans’ pass rush will make Frerotte look as bad or even worse than Tarvaris Jackson did in his first 2 starts.

Minnesota’s defense has performed quite well as they currently rank 7th in yards allowed and 8th in points allowed. Tennessee’s offense appears to be functioning better with backup QB Kerry Collins since he is a better passer than Vince Young. Tennessee now has a more balanced form of attack between its running and passing plays which makes their play calling much less predictable to the opposition. Minnesota is averaging 4 more yards on offense than Tennessee is but the Titans are averaging 7 more points per game. This game will be a defensive battle where both teams will focus heavily on running the ball and maintaining possession. The bottom line is that the better defense will win. The Titans have the better defense and the better QB. Expect Tennessee to win this one and cover.

On a weekly basis, Unlocked Sports.com analyzes many of the upcoming matchups and offers there detailed 2008 NFL predictions free of charge.

Prediction: Tennessee 20 Minnesota 13


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